Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
